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Mat Honan

You're going to read this, and you're going to say, how is this about tech? I'm gonna head you off at that pass: This is a message from Internet, the generation that became the voice that set the tone for everything you love about the Net. And it's pissed. -Editor

Earlier generations have weathered recessions, of course; this stall we're in has the look of something nastier. Social Security and Medicare are going to be diminished, at best. Hours worked are up even as hiring staggers along: Blood from a stone looks to be the normal order of things "going forward," to borrow the business-speak. Economists are warning that even when the economy recuperates, full employment will be lower and growth will be slower-a sad little rhyme that adds up to something decidedly ­unpoetic. A majority of Americans say, for the first time ever, that this generation will not be better off than its parents. New York Magazine

New York Magazine
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6/11/18 5:34pm

Generation X is sick of your bullshit.

The first generation to do worse than its parents? Please. Been there. Generation X was told that so many times that it can't even read those words without hearing Winona Ryder's voice in its heads. Or maybe it's Ethan Hawke's. Possibly Bridget Fonda's. Generation X is getting older, and can't remember those movies so well anymore. In retrospect, maybe they weren't very good to begin with.

But Generation X is tired of your sense of entitlement. Generation X also graduated during a recession. It had even shittier jobs, and actually had to pay for its own music. (At least, when music mattered most to it.) Generation X is used to being fucked over. It lost its meager savings in the dot-com bust. Then came George Bush, and 9/11, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Generation X bore the brunt of all that. And then came the housing crisis.

Generation X wasn't surprised. Generation X kind of expected it.

Generation X is a journeyman. It didn't invent hip hop, or punk rock, or even electronica (it's pretty sure those dudes in Kraftwerk are boomers) but it perfected all of them, and made them its own. It didn't invent the Web, but it largely built the damn thing. Generation X gave you Google and Twitter and blogging; Run DMC and Radiohead and Nirvana and Notorious B.I.G. Not that it gets any credit.

But that's okay. Generation X is used to being ignored, stuffed between two much larger, much more vocal, demographics. But whatever! Generation X is self-sufficient. It was a latchkey child. Its parents were too busy fulfilling their own personal ambitions to notice any of its trophies-which were admittedly few and far between because they were only awarded for victories, not participation.

Reply to this comment
March 15, 2018 at 6:01 pm

Would this be bad news for difference-in-difference type estimator that’s popular in applied econometrics? There the goal is to estimate an interaction and find statistical significance…

Reply to this comment
March 15, 2018 at 6:50 pm

I think the blog post is misleading in a couple of different ways.

(1) Contrary to the suggestion of the title, an interaction and a main effect will have the same power given the same N and the same standardized effect size (partial eta^2). Of course, the body of the blog post doesn’t actually dispute this–it’s based on the explicit assumption that the interaction effect size is half that of the main effects–so I’d just say the title is misleading, given that most people who see the title’s conclusion will likely interpret it as applying to situations where the standardized effect size is held constant.

(2) As noted in the addendum, there’s some ambiguity about what it means for the interaction effect size to be half that of the main effect on an unstandardized scale. I’d argue that we can only sensibly compare the sizes of unstandardized effects in this way after equating them on var(X), otherwise it’s sort of apples-to-oranges. The 16X conclusion violates this principle because it compares main effects on a [-1/2, +1/2] scale to an interaction that’s on a [-1/4, +1/4] scale. So when you cut β_interaction in half in addition to that change of scaling, I’d argue you’re really putting the interaction at a quarter the size of the main effects, not half the size. If you equate the scales first and then set β_interaction to half on that scale, the sample size multiplier is 4X, not 16X (as hinted in the addendum). This also agrees with the fact that the sample size multiplier is 4X, not 16X, when the standardized effect size (partial eta^2) for the interaction is half that for the main effects.

Reply to this comment
March 15, 2018 at 7:48 pm

I don’t really understand things like standardized effect size and partial eta—actually, I’ve never heard of partial eta. As discussed in the addendum, the power for estimating main effect and interaction will only be equal in a setting where, for example, the main effect is 0.6, with an effect of 0 for one group and 1.2 for the other. I agree that this can occur but I don’t think it’s typical. This is related to the piranha principle that we discussed not long ago on the blog.

In any case, I hope the R code and then the addendum helped.

To elaborate on one of the points implicitly arising in our discussion: There are cases where main effects are small and interactions are large. Indeed, in general, these labels have some arbitrariness to them, as my colleagues and I realized many years ago when studying congressional elections: recode the outcome from Democratic or Republican vote share to incumbent party vote share, and interactions with incumbent party become main effects, and main effects become interactions. So, yes, the above post is in the context of main effects which are modified by interactions; there’s the implicit assumption that if the main effect is positive, then it will be positive in the subgroups we look at, just maybe a bit larger or smaller. Again, I think this makes sense in most of the social science research I’ve seen, and I think it makes sense for most of the interactions that people look at—especially in the common setting that people look at lots of interactions, in which case I think most of them will have to be small—but it won’t apply in every case.

The truth was, Ivanka and Jared were as much the chief of staff as Priebus or Bannon, all of them reporting directly to the president. The couple had opted for formal jobs in the West Wing, in part because they knew that influencing Trump required you to be all-in. From phone call to phone call — and his day, beyond organized meetings, was almost entirely phone calls — you could lose him. He could not really converse, not in the sense of sharing information, or of a balanced back-and-forth conversation. He neither particularly listened to what was said to him nor particularly considered what he said in response. He demanded you pay him attention, then decided you were weak for groveling. In a sense, he was like an instinctive, pampered, and hugely successful actor. Everybody was either a lackey who did his bidding or a high-ranking film functionary trying to coax out his performance — without making him angry or petulant.

Ivanka maintained a relationship with her father that was in no way conventional. She was a helper not just in his business dealings, but in his marital realignments. If it wasn’t pure opportunism, it was certainly transactional. For Ivanka, it was all business — building the Trump brand, the presidential campaign, and now the White House. She treated her father with a degree of detachment, even irony, going so far as to make fun of his comb-over to others. She often described the mechanics behind it to friends: an absolutely clean pate — a contained island after scalp-reduction ­surgery — surrounded by a furry circle of hair around the sides and front, from which all ends are drawn up to meet in the center and then swept back and secured by a stiffening spray. The color, she would point out to comical effect, was from a product called Just for Men — the longer it was left on, the darker it got. Impatience resulted in Trump’s orange-blond hair color.

Kushner, for his part, had little to no success at trying to restrain his father-in-law. Ever since the transition, Jared had been negotiating to arrange a meeting at the White House with Cheap Real Cheap Lowest Price hammered lame top Pink amp; Purple Valentino For Sale Cheap Price Cheap Price From China Cvroaodlu
, the Mexican president whom Trump had threatened and insulted throughout the campaign. On the Wednesday after the inauguration, a high-level Mexican delegation — the first visit by any foreign leaders to the Trump White House — met with Kushner and Reince Priebus. That afternoon, Kushner triumphantly told his father-in-law that Peña Nieto had signed on to a White House meeting and planning for the visit could go forward.

The next day, on Twitter, Trump blasted Mexico for stealing American jobs . “If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall,” the president declared, “then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting.” At which point Msgm Woman Printed Lace Tshirt White Size 40 Msgm Clearance Visit For Sale Wholesale Price Sale Supply Discount 2018 Newest 3v76A
, leaving Kushner’s negotiation and statecraft as so much scrap on the floor.

Nothing contributed to the chaos and dysfunction of the White House as much as Trump’s own behavior. The big deal of being president was just not apparent to him. Most victorious candidates, arriving in the White House from ordinary political life, could not help but be reminded of their transformed circumstances by their sudden elevation to a mansion with palacelike servants and security, a plane at constant readiness, and downstairs a retinue of courtiers and advisers. But this wasn’t that different from Trump’s former life in Trump Tower, which was actually more commodious and to his taste than the White House.

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